Winter 2019-2020 experienced the perfect storm of warmer than average temperatures, reduced consumption and demand due to weather and global events, and increased supply – resulting in historically low February prices.
After the second warmest November on record, nine of the ten weeks ending November 23 to January 25 were all “warmer” than normal, as recorded by Heating Degree Days.
EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average $2.45/MMBtu in 2020, down $0.14/MMBtu from the 2019 average. And, with an expedited closure of Aliso Canyon looming, CA facilities should reassess their risk tolerance sooner than later.
EIA forecasts that annual U.S. dry natural gas production will average 92.1 Bcf/d in 2019, up 10% from 2018. Production is expected to grow less in 2020.
As winter nears and conditions remain favorable relative to this time last year, consider a +30% hedge heading into 2020.
Persistent oversupply is forecasted to drive the 2020 national average price of Henry Hub to lows not seen in decades.
Keeping with recent trends, natural gas production records continue to be the biggest market driver.
With production hovering around all-time highs and temperatures remaining neutral, prices are appearing quite favorable.
In California, consider hedging through summer and winter seasons. Otherwise, look for price stabilization and opportunities for mixed Index/fixed strategies.
In California, consider hedging through summer and winter seasons. Otherwise, look for price stabilization and opportunities for mixed Index/fixed strategies.